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School Seismology :: Blog :: What's the point of Seismology ?

May 16, 2008

What is the point of seismology if it cannot predict or prevent earthquakes? As the casualty figures from China approach 50,000 this is a question that you might find yourself being askled or asking yourself. It is a very important question that every seismologist has to answer at some point in their career. I usually end up talking about the things that seismology has been able to do. We have been very succesful at probabalistic analysis of earthquakes. For any location on the planet it is possible to calculate fairly accurately what the probability that a certain threshold of ground shaking will be exceeded within a 50 year period. This is not useful for evacuating populations before a big event but it is used extensively to ensure that building codes in earthquake prone zones are sufficient to withstand the likely effects. Unfortunately many earthquakes happen in areas where building codes are not adhered to or have many buildings thta are too old to be covered by these recent advances in understanding. In many cases effective mitigation of the effects of earthquake is a political and economic problem rather than a technical scientific one. Scientists need to ensure that the results of their research is communicated effectively to those in power in the field of seismology as much as in other fields (eg climate change)

Posted by Paul Denton @ School Seismology

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